Asian Games: India’s Likely Performance

India heads into this edition of the Asian Games with one of the largest contingents in its history — a massive 653 athletes across 35 sports. Historically, India has occupied a familiar zone on the medal table, finishing mostly 8th (1994, 2006, 2014, 2018), with a 6th-place finish in 2010, 7th in 1998, and 9th in 2002.

In terms of medals, India has usually returned with 10–16 gold medals and 30–70 total medals. The benchmark remains the 2018 Asian Games, where India recorded its best-ever performance with 16 gold medals and 70 overall medals. The question now is simple: how will India perform this time?

This five-part series attempts to answer that question, sport by sport, beginning alphabetically.

Aquatics (23 Athletes)

Aquatics has traditionally been a difficult frontier for India at the Asian Games. While there have been occasional flashes of promise — and historical figures like Khazan Singh Tokas deserve mention — sustained podium success has remained elusive.

This edition appears even tougher. Asian swimming standards have risen sharply, with China, Japan, and several Southeast Asian nations making rapid progress. Indian swimmers such as Srihari, Sajan, and Virdhawal may produce strong performances and possibly reach finals, but medal contention looks unlikely.

Likely Gold: 0 | Likely Medals: 0

Athletics (68 Entries)

Athletics continues to be India’s single biggest medal contributor at the Asian Games. This edition is no exception, even though competition has intensified.

India currently holds seven Asia-leading marks, including the three 4×400m relays, men’s javelin throw, triple jump, long jump, and shot put. None of these events are guaranteed wins, but India is firmly in contention.

What stands out is depth. Indian athletes are competitive across nearly 25 events, including women’s track races from 200m to 5000m, hurdles, jumps, throws, combined events, and race walking.

In 2018, India produced its greatest-ever athletics performance (8 gold, 9 silver, 3 bronze). While matching the gold count may be difficult, the total medal tally could well be the highest India has ever achieved.

Likely Gold: 5–12 | Likely Medals: 17–25

Badminton (19 Athletes)

Badminton has been a surprisingly difficult sport for India at the Asian Games. Despite global success elsewhere, India has never won a badminton gold at the Games and has secured only three medals since 1994.

This time, however, optimism is justified. India’s best hopes lie with Satwik-Chirag in men’s doubles, the men’s team buoyed by their Thomas Cup triumph, and HS Prannoy in singles.

Breaking through Asia’s elite — China, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea — is never easy, but incremental progress looks possible.

Likely Gold: 0–2 | Likely Medals: 1–3

Basketball (20 Athletes)

Basketball remains one of India’s toughest Asian Games disciplines. The competitive gap with East Asian and Middle Eastern powers is significant, and medal contention is unrealistic in this cycle.

Likely Gold: 0 | Likely Medals: 0