TricolourTrack Asian Games Countdown
TOTAL MEDALS 106 2022 Hangzhou 95–105 2026 predicted GOLD MEDALS 28 2022 Hangzhou 25–32 2026 predicted
Part 08 of 08

Preview -Asian Games 2026 part 8 of 8
–Medal Prospects, Key Highlights and My Eat My Hat Prediction

Author by Nitin Sanker

Twenty-five to thirty-two golds, 95 to 105 medals and a fourth-place finish in Asia — the final forecast for Aichi-Nagoya 2026, and the hat I'm willing to eat.

In my first post (1 of 8) in this blog series, I had asked four questions. After a marathon seven posts, going through the sports one by one in excruciating detail, it is time to answer them.

The questions from Part 1

  1. Was 2022 a flash in the pan, and are we going to slip backward again and return to our usual 6–8 position in Asia, which we had held for the previous 40 years?
  2. Can we hold on to the 4th position we achieved in 2022?
  3. Can we get close to 30 gold medals again?
  4. Can we cross the 100-medal mark again?

Well, if you haven't read the previous seven posts, do go through them. Here is what we find when we add it all up…

Sport India in 2022 India 2026 (my prediction)
Gold Total Gold Total
Shooting7223–918–25
Athletics6293–718–28
Archery593–66–11
Squash251–43–6
Cricket221–22
Kabaddi221–22
Badminton130–22–4
Tennis120–11
Equestrian120–21–3
Field hockey121–22
Rowing050–14–7
Chess02NANA
Wrestling061–24–8
Boxing040–24–7
Sailing031–22–4
Bridge01NANA
Golf0100–2
Wushu0102–4
Roller sports02NANA
Canoeing0101–3
Sepak takraw010–11–2
Table tennis0100–2
Taekwondo000–10–1
Kurash0001–2
MMANANA0–10–1
Karate000–10–1
Weightlifting0001–2
TeqballNANA00–2
Total2810615–4874–130
India's medals at Hangzhou 2022 versus my sport-by-sport prediction for Aichi-Nagoya 2026. Highlighted rows are sports where India has not won gold in at least the last 40 years.

Q1How many golds?

This is the key question, and it is linked to another: will we be able to retain our position as the 4th-best Asian sporting nation, which we won with great difficulty at the 2022 Asian Games?

Our record before that, from 1990 to 2018, was between 11th and 6th position. Most commonly, we finished around 8th.

Well, just looking at the fact that we have around 48 possible gold-medal prospects, this is an amazing number. What makes it even more interesting is the variety. We have athletes with gold-medal prospects in sports such as Taekwondo, MMA, Sepak Takraw, Sailing and Karate — sports in which we have not won gold in at least the last 40 years.

So my take is that we can legitimately hope for 25–32 gold medals, and I believe we will finish 4th in Asia once again.

Q2How many medals?

I feel 95–105 medals is a realistic range to look at.

2022 Actual
28 Gold medals — India finished 4th in Asia
106 Total medals — India's record haul
2026 Prediction
25–32 Gold medals — from around 48 possible gold-medal prospects
95–105 Total medals — a realistic range
India overall: Hangzhou 2022 versus the outlook for Aichi-Nagoya 2026.

Q3Five things to look forward to

Here are the five things we should really look forward to at these Asian Games.

1. Finishing 4th again

The most obvious one is whether we can finish 4th again, further cementing our position as Asia's 4th-best Olympic-sports nation.

2. Breakthroughs in new sports

We should be looking for breakthroughs in sports such as canoeing, women's rowing, sailing, Taekwondo, Sepak Takraw, weightlifting, MMA and Teqball.

Where the breakthroughs could come

Canoeing Women's rowing Sailing Taekwondo Sepak Takraw Weightlifting MMA Teqball

Some of these could give us our first-ever gold medals, while others could bring our first medals in the sport. This would broaden our medal base across sports and, more importantly, help us continue to grow as an Olympic sporting nation.

3. Our favourite athletes and teams

I would love to see Mirabai Chanu in weightlifting, Sujeet Kalkal and Aman Sehrawat in wrestling, the women's hockey team taking on China, the men's and women's kabaddi finals, and then the whole plethora of shooting, archery and athletics.

It is going to be a brilliant two weeks of sport.

4. The new sports

It should also be fascinating to see some of the newer sports, such as Teqball and MMA, which I don't know much about.

Sometimes you love a new sport and sometimes you hate it. I hated esports; I loved bouldering!

5. Indian high-performance moments

What can I say? I am an Indian patriot when it comes to sport. Every time I see the emotion on an athlete's face as they watch the Tricolour go up, it gives me an incredible emotional high.

Q4My "eat my hat" prediction

Some of my friends follow the Games partly because of a rather perverse desire to see me eat my hat. So here goes my eat-my-hat prediction:

If India does not finish 4th on the medal table, I will eat my hat!
Question 1

Gold medals

25–32
  • Around 48 possible gold prospects
  • 2022 haul: 28 golds
Question 2

Total medals

95–105
  • A realistic range
  • 2022 record: 106 medals
Questions 1 & 2

Position in Asia

4th
  • Holding the 2022 finish
  • Earlier record: 11th to 6th
Question 4

The hat

🎩
  • Eaten only if India misses 4th

So, wow — I hope you enjoy the Games and, most importantly, support our Indian sportspersons.

The Asian Games are being telecast live on Sony Sports and SonyLIV, and they start today.

Let the Games begin!

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That wraps up the series — let the Games begin!